Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 10.483456 12.022567 13.677646 15.585954 17.721567 20.033879 22.722841
2025-11-23 8.042430 10.092414 12.467964 15.408718 18.934637 23.008719 28.053649
2025-11-30 6.902947 9.179335 11.945850 15.526358 20.005302 25.388221 32.308310
2025-12-07 6.156085 8.621666 11.747384 15.953576 21.411905 28.196419 37.199436
2025-12-14 5.347540 7.852667 11.152622 15.751364 21.916745 29.810158 40.578122
2025-12-21 4.524763 6.959199 10.287542 15.084270 21.717367 30.449495 42.673124
2025-12-28 4.189033 6.700127 10.242309 15.492028 22.939510 32.969934 47.308776
2026-01-04 3.861068 6.411701 10.118455 15.759225 23.955570 35.231479 51.666858
2026-01-11 3.473687 5.990023 9.757400 15.642569 24.397988 36.695466 54.961084
2026-01-18 3.128054 5.595513 9.397611 15.488224 24.755063 38.028916 58.097876
2026-01-25 2.861579 5.299607 9.159533 15.489703 25.323761 39.667405 61.709799
2026-02-01 2.652792 5.077332 9.015293 15.617098 26.073952 41.583676 65.778217
2026-02-08 2.419529 4.795350 8.759646 15.560541 26.552351 43.140716 69.420890
2026-02-15 2.193445 4.503243 8.463192 15.414587 26.876586 44.472673 72.775059
2026-02-22 2.036464 4.318941 8.330378 15.521007 27.593877 46.414892 77.101287
2026-03-01 1.946591 4.250685 8.391073 15.952249 28.852031 49.236236 82.869405
2026-03-08 1.768197 3.993586 8.095941 15.748572 29.043815 50.376871 86.050699
2026-03-15 1.543668 3.620597 7.559593 15.082095 28.414713 50.168362 87.079932
2026-03-22 1.482506 3.574202 7.623812 15.489612 29.631591 52.982686 93.017695
2026-03-29 1.408052 3.492182 7.613180 15.756842 30.612264 55.438556 98.449116
2026-04-05 1.294804 3.314733 7.403795 15.640177 30.906855 56.759957 102.063578
2026-04-12 1.187618 3.138937 7.183233 15.485862 31.120967 57.945448 105.481533
2026-04-19 1.105656 3.011443 7.049461 15.487337 31.611997 59.611235 109.743691